Do the polls reflect youth voters?

On Super Tuesday, according to MTV.com, nearly 4 times the amount of voters came out and voted in each states primaries than they did in 2000.  A large number of this has come from younger or first time voters.

Lately, we have seen in polls McCain grow ever closer in numbers to Obama.  My question I throw out to readers is:  How accurate do the polls show reflection of the increase of youth voting?

http://elections.foxnews.com/2008/07/28/youth-vote-obama-v-mccain/

According to this FOX News report,  55% of voters 18-34 favor Barack Obama as opposed to just 31% who favor John McCain.  Meanwhile, the polls show Obama leading 44-42% over McCain.  Are the media outlets really reaching the 18-34 year olds of our country?  In years past, the politicians have came out and focused on the elderly, and the middle aged.  This year, we see more and more outreach to voters.  Walking the streets you can see young adults flashing their political beliefs, and on college campuses all throughout America the buzz about this election is growing ever so larger.  However, you can’t help but feel the media does not take the youth of America seriously.  They feel that American college students are going to be too busy playing frisbee on the quad to actually take their time out and vote.  Sure, they’ll cover the youth vote but how about we come out and vote…but how about we see some reflection in the polls.  If 55% of young Americans 18-34 are going to come out and support Obama, shouldn’t his margin be significantly higher than just 2%?  The poll was taken on July 28th, voters might have swayed different ways but I still just have the sneaking suspicion that the media still does not take the youth of this country seriously enough.   My call is to the media outlets, reach out to more younger voters because I feel we will have the greatest impact we ever have had in any election ever.

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4 responses to “Do the polls reflect youth voters?

  1. polisciafterparty

    My sense is that polling agencies simply haven’t caught up to our generation. Most polls rely upon phone calls to home residences in order to get the sample set they need to “accurately” model the U.S. population. Quick question- how many of you have used (let alone answered) your “home” phone in the past four years? I stopped using my home phone four years ago when I left for college and haven’t used it since. My only number is my cell phone. I will never be asked for an actual poll (unless of course, I happen to hear a push- poll on my answering machine and pick up). So long as young people go out and vote (a big IF), I think the polls will underestimate the extent of Obama’s lead all the way up to the election.

    Or one hopes.

    – Legal Eagle

  2. I doub’t it. No cell phone numbers, no polling. Please you guys, you have to vote this year, by millions.

  3. polisciafterparty

    I hope we do, hopefully the voters in Ohio, Florida, and Virginia feel the same way.

    -The Conzz

  4. polling as a “science,” that is collecting data and running it through probability models, is a total con in 2008. these polling firms make HUGE $$$, by essentially guessing based on demographic stats.

    my question to ALL polling firms:

    how do you poll someone who doesn’t want to talk to you? and who you have no legal way of publicly looking-up?

    go out and vote so we can put some of these overpaid ProbStat geeks out of business.

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