Economic Snapshot

So, there was an amusing email sent around the office today, and i think it really grasps everything that is going on in the economic and investment world at the moment…

**THESE WORDS OF WISWOM ARE FOR INTERNAL AND EXTERNAL USE ONLY!!**

If you had purchased $1,000 of Delta Air Lines stock one year ago, you would have $49 left.

With Fannie Mae, you would have $2.50 left of the original $1,000.

With AIG, you would have less than $15 left.

But if you had purchased $1,000 worth of beer one year ago, drunk all of the beer, then turned in the cans for the aluminum recycling REFUND, you would have $214 cash.

Based on the above, the best current investment advice is to drink heavily and recycle.

 

Cheers to that.

Picture of the Day; September 30th, 2008

Ah yes, her foreign policy experience.

Notes on the Law from Law School

It is perhaps fitting that my first post from within the law school premises relate to the Supreme Court. Though I’ve yet to actually deal with the Supremes in any of my classes, I nonetheless find this little tidbit about our favorite punching bag to be depressing. And scary. As usual.

Of concern to McCain’s campaign, however, is a remaining and still-undisclosed clip from Palin’s interview with Couric last week that has the political world buzzing.

The Palin aide, after first noting how “infuriating” it was for CBS to purportedly leak word about the gaffe, revealed that it came in response to a question about Supreme Court decisions.

After noting Roe vs. Wade, Palin was apparently unable to discuss any major court cases.

There was no verbal fumbling with this particular question as there was with some others, the aide said, but rather silence.

Two points. First, any VP candidate from a major party should know enough about one of the coordinate branches of the Federal Government to name one meaningful policy debate (well, legal debate) it has found itself in. That she didnt know does not merely suggest ignorance of legal decisions, but rather ignorance of topics in American history. While many many cases find themselves wallowing in the obscurity of the debates that go on in the country’s law reviews, a great number of them still punctuate great social movements in the United States. Dred Scott, Brown v. Board of Ed, and Lawrence v. Texas (just to name a few) had huge impacts on the national issues of slavery, segregation and gay rights. My second point is that in light of her shocking ignorance of the court cases, it highlights her own religious fundamentalism that the only case she does apparently have an “informed” opinion on is Roe. Not a surprise.

Anyway, this all assumes that this rumor of the gaffe is true. If not, forget everything I said.

Olmert Warns of Jewish Extremists

Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert has criticized a recent surge in violence committed by extremist Jewish settlers:

An “evil wind of extremism” is threatening Israel’s democracy, outgoing Prime Minister Ehud Olmert warned Sunday, after a pipe bomb attack wounded a professor critical of Israel’s settler movement.

Olmert’s forceful comments came amid growing concerns in Israel about violence by hard-line radicals, including extremist West Bank settlers.

Israeli defense officials and human rights groups have noted a rise in settler violence against Palestinian soldiers and Israeli soldiers in recent months.

Now, perhaps, is also not the time to delve into the injustices of Israeli rule in the Palestinian territories (for instance, how Palestinians who live in the territories are governed by the laws of military occupation, but how Jewish settlers who live in those same territories are governed by civilian Israeli law).  I view this story as a further example of how most acts of extremist violence (however unforgivable they may be) arise out of issues more concrete than simple ideological hatred.  Palestinian violence is motivated more by instances like these than by radical Muslim ideology.  I am not justifying any act of violence, but I do believe that understanding the true causes of conflict can help in its resolution.

A New Permanent U.S. Military Presence…In Israel

The United States has permanently stationed troops in Israel, according to the New York Daily News:

The United States has stationed 120 American troops and an early-warning radar system in Israel – marking the first permanent U.S. military presence there.

Soldiers and technicians from the U.S. European Command flew to the Nevatim military base in the Negev Desert last Sunday, bringing with them advanced radar systems designed to help protect Israel against a potential ballistic missile attack from Iran, according to the weekly Defense News.

Perhaps now is not the time to rant about the extraordinarily high amounts of aid the United States provides for Israel.  This, however, is another example not only of the United States’ support for Israel, but, more significantly, of the United States continuing to extend its military presence worldwide.  For someone like me who believes that the ever-expanding number of American military bases throughout the world has at least something to do – if not a great deal to do – with the terrorism we are facing, this is truly a step in the wrong direction.  While I do not want to see Israel attacked by Iran, I do not believe that establishing a United States military base in Israel will help them avoid such an attack.

Wait, I have a bracelet too!

During Friday’s debate, John McCain mentioned a bracelet he was given to wear in honor of a soldier who was killed in action, and then Barack Obama was sure to mention that he, too, wears a bracelet in honor of a fallen soldier.

While I recognize that the two Senators were making different points regarding these bracelets, it seemed a little bit much.  I believe that it was too much of an emotional, visceral appeal to voters.  I have to hope that the average American voter is better than that.

Meeting with the Enemy

I believe that our president should be willing to meet with any foreign leader, no matter how much that leader “hates” the United States, without “preconditions.”  I would rather my government work out a compromise with another country than send our young people into battle because a handful of old men cannot agree.  Dialogue is an important part of life; if you do not get along with your co-worker, you do not shoot him, you sit down and talk and work something out.  And, even if you refuse to talk, turning to violence is simply unacceptable.  If a police officer would not accept the legitimacy of murdering a co-worker, then why must we accept the legitimacy of one 18-year-old killing another 18-year-old.

Now, I recognize that my analogy is somewhat problematic, and that it may be difficult to defend myself against charges of naivete.  At the same time, however, I think that this issue merely scratches the surface of a larger problem:  American exceptionalism.  Our leaders do not want to meet with leaders they disagree with because they think they are better than them.  Preconditions simply mean that other nations need to bend to the will of the United States.  We say we’ll meet with them if they do what we want first.  And we justify that by saying that we’re the best country in the world.  That gets us (and the world) exactly nowhere.  It’s like telling your co-worker that we’ll meet to resolve the problem as soon as you admit that you are wrong, and that I am right.  But, in the workplace, one respects his or her co-workers.  It’s a shame that, simply because we do not agree with their style of government, our leaders do not respect their counterparts in the world.

I could not help thinking about this during last night’s debate.  More than a year ago, Barack Obama was criticized a great deal for saying that he would meet with the United States’ enemies.  He was attacked by both Democrats and Republicans.  Last night, for the most part, Obama re-affirmed this position.  Now, Senator Obama has certainly engaged in the rhetoric of American exceptionalism, a regrettably necessary part of being elected.  But actions do speak louder than words, and I can only hope that, as president, he would not succumb to the static pull of our institutions and instead sit down, face to face, as equal human beings, with America’s enemies.  This would not mean that we are condoning their actions, and a compromise would not mean that we suspend our domestic security measures overnight.  Rather, such a meeting would symbolize mutual respect, and it would ultimately keep the United States safer.

Bush Declines Military Action?

The British Guardian newspaper has reported that President Bush declined to support a hypothetical Israeli bombing of nuclear sites in Iran:

Israel gave serious thought this spring to launching a military strike on Iran’s nuclear sites but was told by President George W Bush that he would not support it and did not expect to revise that view for the rest of his presidency, senior European diplomatic sources have told the Guardian.

Bush’s decision to refuse to offer any support for a strike on Iran appeared to be based on two factors, the sources said. One was US concern over Iran’s likely retaliation, which would probably include a wave of attacks on US military and other personnel in Iraq and Afghanistan, as well as on shipping in the Persian Gulf.

The other was US anxiety that Israel would not succeed in disabling Iran’s nuclear facilities in a single assault even with the use of dozens of aircraft. It could not mount a series of attacks over several days without risking full-scale war. So the benefits would not outweigh the costs.

One official said: “There is a large Lebanese diaspora in Canada which must include some Hizbollah supporters. They could slip into the United States and take action.” I can’t decide if this is fear-mongering or George Bush actually trying to protect us from terrorists…

Just In Case You Were Wondering…

McCain already won the debate:

Apparently this ad was released before the campaign had even announced that he was going to attend.

Following the Palin Video

Sarah Palin is 100% UNQUALIFIED to Be Vice President !!!

Oh dear God, this is just so terrifying.  If this woman is actually elected to the vice presidency, I will seriously lose all faith in the intellect of the American people.

And I just might move to Canada.  No… really.  I’m not kidding.

Cartoon of the Day: September 25, 2008

Sorry for the lack of posts, or comments for that matter, but things have been hectic here at AIG.  Long hours plus high stress environments does not make trader a happy guy.  The cartoon I am posting, however, does put a giddy little smile on my face, because it is relatively true…

 

MALINTENT !!!

Is this progress or a totalitarian nightmare?  As our friends at Fox News like to say, you decide:

MALINTENT, the brainchild of the cutting-edge Human Factors division in Homeland Security’s directorate for Science and Technology, searches your body for non-verbal cues that predict whether you mean harm to your fellow passengers.

It has a series of sensors and imagers that read your body temperature, heart rate and respiration for unconscious tells invisible to the naked eye — signals terrorists and criminals may display in advance of an attack.

This whole security array — the scanners and screeners who make up the mobile lab — is called “Future Attribute Screening Technology” — or FAST — because it is designed to get passengers through security in two to four minutes, and often faster.

But the testing — and the device itself — are not without their problems. This invasive scanner, which catalogues your vital signs for non-medical reasons, seems like an uninvited doctor’s exam and raises many privacy issues.

But DHS says this is not Big Brother. Once you are through the FAST portal, your scrutiny is over and records aren’t kept. “Your data is dumped,” said Burns. “The information is not maintained — it doesn’t track who you are.”

Burns noted his team’s goal is to “restore a sense of freedom.” Once MALINTENT is rolled out in airports, it could give us a future where we can once again wander onto planes with super-sized cosmetics and all the bottles of water we can carry — and most importantly without that sense of foreboding that has haunted Americans since Sept. 11.

“Human Factors division in Homeland Security’s directorate for Science and Technology” – sorry, but that title sounds a bit foreboding…

McCain Campaign Suspended

I want to share some of my thoughts on John McCain’s suspension of his campaign, as it is certainly an unusual move just five weeks before an election.

Surely this decision was partially, if not wholly, political.  McCain must believe that this move can result in a spike of his poll numbers.  He wants to portray his leadership abilities (his penchant for decisive action, I suppose), differentiate himself from Barack Obama, and show that he is concerned about the economy.  Perhaps all this is intuitive, but can there be another motive at work here?  Maybe McCain believes he needs more time to prepare for the debate.  He might fear he will be beaten Friday and now hopes to use the economy to delay the date (I cannot believe he thinks it might be fully canceled).

What about the non-political side of this?  Could this be the right thing to do?  I cannot disagree with Senator Obama when he says that a president must be able to deal with more than one major issue at once (a multi-tasking of sorts).  Further, how much can one Senator do to alleviate the financial crisis?  Will his presence and undivided attention make any kind of difference?  That is doubtful.  All this said, however, I am not able to fully condemn Senator McCain’s action in this case.  Maybe he’s doing the right thing.  Perhaps our candidates should know when to put politics on the back burner and actually work (first and foremost) for the good of the country.  And, quite possibly, I’ve been duped by Rick Davis.

Picture of the Day; September 22nd, 2008

New Post!

Only to inform everyone that I am, in fact, alive and that I made it to Chicago. Among many other bothersome aspects of my arrival here, I don’t have internet in my apartment so posting to the blog while I am at home will be somewhat difficult. Also, my car is dead. Died on the way to dropping my parents off at the airport… It is in a AAA lot somewhere in Chicago.

However, my apartment is large enough to host two guests comfortably and many more on the large floor. I hope to see some of you here at some point in the next three years.

Geez…

Despite the Fed’s efforts on behalf of AIG, this is what the market looked like today:

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Down nearly 450 points…

While We Have it Bad….

Russia is tanking. Care of Bloomie:

Sept. 17 (Bloomberg) — Russia poured $44 billion into its three largest banks and halted stock trading for a second day in a bid to stem the worst financial crisis since the devaluation and default a decade ago.

The Finance Ministry extended the repayment period on loans available to OAO Sberbank, VTB Group and OAO Gazprombank to three months from one week. The benchmark Micex stock index plunged as much as 10 percent, bringing its three-day decline to 25 percent. The KIT Finance brokerage said it’s in talks with investors to sell a stake after failing to meet obligations.

Russia’s markets are facing the biggest test since the government defaulted in 1998. The decade-long economic boom is fading, foreign investors have pulled at least $35 billion from the nation’s stocks and bonds since the five-day war in Georgia last month, and the collapse this week of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. and American International Group Inc. prompted a flight from emerging markets.

They’ve halted trading because it is so bad…. At least our markets are still functioning. If you recall Long Term Capital Management, this situation looks to be the opposite- instead of a Russian default spelling the death of an enormous American financial institution (LTCM) we have the failure of American financial institutions spelling the massive sufferring of the Russian economy.

This Ad Just Came Up on my Gmail…

and frankly, I’m TERRIFIED. Have a look-see:

http://www.bestpartyoncampus.com/?gclid=CPKd2Z6-45UCFQqjGgodgT3vfg

WTF – 2012? It’s the end of the world as we know it… and no, I don’t feel fine.

Picture of the Day; September 17th, 2008

From a guest blogger at the Freakonomics blog, on the incidence of massacres:

I recommend his very plausbile hypothesis as to why this is the case.